Felipe Fulcher Cruvinel
PhD Candidate
Currently working on a research project on Data Analytics in Counterinsurgency as part of a PhD in International Relations at the University of Saint Andrews, with a focus on Afghanistan as a case study. I have a Master’s Degree in International Security from Saint Andrews, obtained after getting a Bachelor’s degree in International Relations at the Queen Mary University of London. My research interests include security and foreign policy matters at the global level, wargaming and crisis simulations, and applied data analytics in conflict analysis. This has been reinforced by a life-long interest in History and constant desire to learn more about the long-term cycles and trends of political systems.
Email: [email protected]
LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/felipe-cruvinel
What specific factors affect levels of violence in an insurgency? My project seeks to answer this question by looking at the case of the recent war in Afghanistan (2001-Present) as a case study. By applying data analysis techniques, we seek to address what could easily become a far too complex question. Dividing factors and data into three distinct categories, nominally Security, Economy, and Governance, we can obtain some firmer footing with which to begin answering our question from a data driven perspective. We can thus begin to identify individual factors and see how they measure up to existing hypotheses within the literature. The notion of economic development as a salve against insurgent violence for instance, or that the provision of security is nigh impossible when dealing with porous borders offering sanctuary to any insurgents. Or even the notion of legitimacy as a driving factor behind the recruitment of new combatants into an insurgent movement, or simply the loss of the support of those the government claims to be fighting for. These are only some of the hypotheses I seek to address in an empirical manner in order to create a framework with which to obtain new insights and perspectives into the fundamental nature of an insurgency.